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The Mediterranean climate change in the global context

Lionello P.
  Martedì 13/09   10:00 - 13:00   Aula U - Giuliana Cini Castagnoli   IV - Geofisica e fisica dell'ambiente   Presentazione
The Mediterranean is considered a hot spot because of the magnitude and characteristics of the expected regional climate change and the consequent risks for human societies, activities, terrestrial and marine ecosystems. This region has already been affected by a temperature increase larger than the global mean warming and peculiar changes of the hydrological cycles towards drier conditions. This contribution describes the results of a large set of global CMIP5 climate projections and it links regional changes to the global mean annual temperature, showing that, as it will increase, in the Mediterranean region, precipitation will decrease and annual temperature will warm more than the global average. Climate extremes will change with different intensity between the northern and the southern areas. While the increase/decrease of warm/cold temperature extremes will be large all over the region, the existing difference in intensity of precipitation and hydrological extremes (both wet and dry) will be further increased between North (where precipitation events are more intense) and South (where conditions are drier) Mediterranean areas.