Correlation between Western Pacific earthquakes and NOAA electron bursts and their transfer entropy.

Fidani C., De Santis A., Perrone L.
  Venerdì 16/09   10:00 - 12:00   Aula U - Giuliana Cini Castagnoli   IV - Geofisica e fisica dell'ambiente   Presentazione
The NOAA-15 satellite high-energy particle database has been analyzed for nearly two decades together with shallow M6+ earthquakes (hypocentral depth $<$ 200 km) in Westerm Pacific. Electron burst events resulted at 1.5-3.5 hours before the earthquake events. This result was robust since it was obtained with an appropriate statistical significance. A conditional probability formulation of earthquake occurrence following satellite measurements was realized for binary events. This was expressed through the Phi correlation coefficient, i.e. the so called Matthews correlation, which is the Pearson's correlation between binary events. Finally, the transfer entropy has been calculated analytically, starting from the conditional probability distributions. It revealed a consistent transfer of information from the set of electron bursts to those of earthquakes, corresponding to the correlation peak, together with a new and less pronounced exchange of information, about two and a half days later. The significance of these results is discussed with respect to the possible cause-effect relationship between the two sets of events.